Indasitiri: Nekuda kwekukanganisa kwemitengo yeUS, mitengo yemidziyo yemugungwa yadzikira

Ongororo yeindasitiri inoratidza kuti zvichangobva kuitika mumutemo wekutengeserana weUS zvakaisa zvakare cheni dzepasirese munzvimbo isina kugadzikana, sekumisikidzwa kweMutungamiriri wenyika, VaDonald Trump uye kumiswa kweimwe mitero kwakakonzera kukanganisa kukuru uye kusagadzikana kumabhizinesi ari kushanda muNorth America.

Iyi pfungwa yekusavimbika yakawedzera kusvika kumari yekutakura zvinhu zvemugungwa, uye maererano neFreightos Baltic Index data, mitengo yemidziyo yemugungwa yawira mukurwadziwa kwemwaka wakaderera mukutanga kwegore.

Kuziviswa kwekutanga kwe25% yemutero pazvinhu zvese zvakaunzwa kunze neUnited States kubva kuMexico neCanada kwakakanganisa indasitiri yezvekutakura zvinhu. Nekudaro, mukati memazuva mashoma, hurumende yakapa chirevo chekumisa mwedzi mumwe kwezvigadzirwa zvemotokari zvakavharwa neUnited States Mexico Canada Agreement, iyo yakazowedzerwa kune zvese zvigadzirwa kunze kwenyika pasi pechibvumirano. Izvi zvinokanganisa 50% yezvinotengwa kubva kuCanada uye 38% yezvinotengeswa kubva kuMexico, zvinosanganisira zvigadzirwa zvemotokari, chikafu uye zvigadzirwa zvekurima, pamwe nezvakawanda zvemagetsi nemagetsi zvigadzirwa.

Midziyo yasara inotengwa kunze kwenyika inoita mari inosvika bhiriyoni imwe chete yemadhora pazuva yatarisana nekuwedzera mutero we25%. Chikwata ichi chinobata zvakasiyana siyana zvezvigadzirwa kubva panhare, makomputa kusvika kumidziyo yekurapa. Kuitwa kwakangoerekana kwaitwa uye kumiswa zvishoma nezvishoma kwemitero iyi kwakakonzera kukanganisa kukuru kwekufambisa kuyambuka muganhu uye traffic yepasi kubva kuMexico neCanada.

Judah Levine, mutungamiriri wekutsvagisa kuFreightos, akanyora mumushumo wakaburitswa nedata razvino kuti mutero uyu hausi chiitiko chega, asi chikamu chegwaro raTrump rekushandisa mutemo wekutengeserana senzira yekuzadzisa zvinangwa zvakasiyana. Muchiitiko ichi, zvinangwa zvakaziviswa zvinosanganisira kugadzirisa nyaya dzekuchengetedzwa kwemuganhu uye kudzivirira kuyerera kwefentanyl uye vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika zvisiri pamutemo. Zvisinei, mimwe mishumo inoratidza kuti izvi zvakakonzerwa nevagadziri vemotokari vanovimbisa kushandura zvimwe zvigadzirwa kubva kuCanada neMexico kuenda kuUnited States.

Levin akataura kuti kusavimbika kwakaunzwa nekuchimbidza kwepolicy iyi kunoita kuti kuronga uye kugadzirisa kwevafambisi kuve kwakaoma. Makambani mazhinji anotora chimiro chekumirira-uye-kuona asati aita shanduko huru mumaketani avo ekupa. Nekudaro, kutyisidzira kwekuwedzera kwemitero kwave pedyo, kunyanya kune zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuChina nevamwe vanotengeserana neUS, izvo zvaita kuti vamwe vatengesi vatumire zvinhu zvemugungwa pamberi pehurongwa kubva munaNovember, zvichiwedzera kudiwa uye mutengo wekutumira.

Mashoko azvino kubva kuNational Retail Federation anoratidza kuti kubva muna Mbudzi gore rapfuura kusvika Kukadzi gore rino, huwandu hwekutakura zvinhu mugungwa reUS hwakawedzera ne12% kana zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana gore rapfuura, zvichiratidza kutyaira kukuru. Kunyangwe zvichitarisirwa kuti huwandu hwekutakura hucharamba hwakasimba muna Chivabvu, zvinotarisirwa kuti huwandu hwekutakura muna Chikumi naChikunguru huchapera simba, zvichiratidza kutanga kwakashata kwemwaka wepamusoro nekuda kwekutanga kutumirwa.

Kukanganisa kwekuchinja kwemitemo yekutengeserana uku kunoonekwawo mumitengo yekutakura zvinhu. Mushure meGore Idzva reLunar, mitengo yemidziyo yetrans Pacific yakaramba ichidzikira, mitengo yekutakura zvinhu kuWest Coast ichidzika kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matanhatu pamakumbo makumi mana yakaenzana uye kuEast Coast ichidzika kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi mashanu neshanu paFEU. Zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura, nhamba idzi dzakadzikira ne40% uye dziri pazasi kana zvishoma pazasi peiyo 2024 yakaderera mushure meLunar New Year.
Saizvozvo, mumavhiki achangopfuura, mitengo yemugungwa yekutengeserana kweAsia Europe yakawirawo pasi peiyo yakaderera yegore rapfuura.

Chiyero cheAsia Nordic chakawedzera ne3% kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matanhatu neshanu paFEU. Mutengo weAsia Mediterranean unoramba uri padanho remadhora mazana mana nemakumi mashanu nepfumbamwe paFEU.

Kunyangwe kuwanda kwehuwandu mukutanga kwaKurume kwakadzikira kuderera uku uye kwakasimudzira mitengo kukwira nemazana mashoma emadhora, kuwedzera kwacho kwaive pasi peiyo $1000 yekuwedzera yakaziviswa nemushandisi. Mitengo iri mudunhu reAsia Mediterranean yakagadzikana uye yakada kuenzana neyegore rapfuura.

Levin akataura kuti kushaya simba kwazvino kwemitengo yekutakura zvinhu, kunyanya munzira dzeTrans Pacific, inogona kunge iri mhedzisiro yezvinhu zvakawanda zvinoshanda pamwechete. Izvi zvinosanganisira kudzimira kwechido mushure meMutambo weChirimo, pamwe nekugadziridzwa kuchangobva kuitika kwemubatanidzwa wevashandi, izvo zvakonzera kukwikwidzwa kwakanyanya uye kudzikira kwehunyanzvi mukutonga kwehunyanzvi sezvo vashandisi vanojairana nemasevhisi achangotangwa.

Neindasitiri yakatarisana nekusavimbika, akati wandei mazuva ekupedzisira ari kuuya. Izvi zvinosanganisira United States Trade Representative kunzwa musi waKurume 24, iyo ichaita sarudzo pazviteshi zvechiteshi; Zvinoenderana nememorandamu yeMutungamiriri we "America First Trade Policy", zuva rekupedzisira rekuti masangano ataure nyaya dzakasiyana dzekutengeserana ndiApril 1st, nepo nguva nyowani yekuisa mutero we25% pazvinhu zveUSMCA ndiApril 2nd.