Indasitiri: Nekuda kwekukanganiswa kwemitero yeUS, mitengo yekutakura zvinhu mumidziyo yegungwa yakaderera

Ongororo yemaindasitiri inoratidza kuti kufambira mberi kwazvino mumutemo wekutengeserana weUS kwaisa zvakare cheni dzezvekutengeswa kwenyika dzese mumamiriro asina kugadzikana, sezvo kuisirwa kwemitero neMutungamiriri wenyika Donald Trump uye kumisa zvishoma kwemitero kwakakonzera kukanganiswa kukuru uye kusava nechokwadi kumabhizinesi anoshanda muNorth America.

Kusava nechokwadi uku kwakawedzera kusvika pahuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotakura matangi emugungwa, uye zvichienderana nedata reFreightos Baltic Index, huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotakura matangi emugungwa hwakaderera zvakanyanya semwaka wakaderera pakutanga kwegore.

Kuziviswa kwekutanga kwemutero we25% pazvinhu zvese zvakaunzwa neUnited States kubva kuMexico neCanada kwakakanganisa indasitiri yezvekutakura zvinhu. Zvisinei, mukati memazuva mashoma, hurumende yakaburitsa gwaro remwedzi mumwe chete rekumiswa kwezvinhu zvemotokari zvakafukidzwa neUnited States Mexico Canada Agreement, iro rakazowedzerwa kune zvese zvinounzwa pasi pechibvumirano. Izvi zvinokanganisa 50% yezvinhu zvinounzwa kubva kuCanada uye 38% yezvinhu zvinounzwa kubva kuMexico, kusanganisira zvigadzirwa zvemotokari, chikafu nezvirimwa, pamwe chete nezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi nemagetsi.

Zvinhu zvakasara zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvinokosha mari inosvika bhiriyoni imwe chete yemadhora pazuva zvava kutarisana nekuwedzerwa kwemitero ne25%. Chikamu ichi chinofukidza mhando dzakasiyana dzezvigadzirwa kubva pamafoni, makomputa kusvika kumidziyo yekurapa. Kuitwa kamwe kamwe uye kumiswa zvishoma kwemitero iyi kwakakonzera kukanganiswa kukuru kwekutakura kwevanhu vanoyambuka miganhu uye kufamba kwevanhu kubva kuMexico neCanada.

Judah Levine, director wekutsvaga kuFreightos, akanyora mumushumo wakaburitswa nedata razvino uno kuti kuderedzwa kwemitengo iyi hakusi chiitiko chega, asi chikamu chemaitiro aTrump ekushandisa mutemo wekutengeserana senzira yekuzadzisa zvinangwa zvakasiyana-siyana. Muchiitiko ichi, zvinangwa zvakaziviswa zvinosanganisira kugadzirisa nyaya dzekuchengetedzwa kwemiganhu uye kudzivirira kuyerera kwefentanyl nevatorwa vasiri pamutemo. Zvisinei, mimwe mishumo inoratidza kuti izvi zvinokonzerwa nevanogadzira mota vachivimbisa kutamisa kugadzirwa kwemotokari kubva kuCanada neMexico kuenda kuUnited States.

Levin akati kusava nechokwadi kunounzwa nekuchinja uku kwemitemo nekukurumidza kunoita kuti kuronga nekugadzirisa kwevanotakura zvinhu kuve kwakaoma zvikuru. Makambani mazhinji anotora maitiro ekumirira nekuona asati azvipira kuchinja kukuru muzvikamu zvavo zvekugovera. Zvisinei, njodzi yekuwedzera kwemitero iri pedyo, kunyanya kune zvinhu zvinotengwa kubva kuChina nedzimwe nyika dzekutengeserana dzemuUS, izvo zvakaita kuti vamwe vanotenga zvinhu vatumire zvinhu zvemugungwa nguva isati yasvika kubva muna Mbudzi, zvichiwedzera kudiwa uye mari yekutumira zvinhu.

Data razvino kubva kuNational Retail Federation rinoratidza kuti kubva muna Mbudzi gore rapera kusvika Kukadzi gore rino, huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa mugungwa muUS hwakawedzera ne12% zvichienzaniswa nenguva imwe chete gore rapera, zvichiratidza mhedzisiro yakakura. Kunyangwe zvichitarisirwa kuti huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa hucharamba hwakasimba muna Chivabvu wese, zvinotarisirwa kuti huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa muna Chikumi naChikunguru huchaderera, zvichiratidza kutanga kusina kusimba kwemwaka wepamusoro wetsika nekuda kwekutumirwa kwekutanga.

Kukanganiswa kwekuchinja kwemitemo yekutengeserana uku kunoonekwawo mumitengo yekutakura zvinhu mumakontena. Mushure meGore Idzva reLunar, mitengo yemakontena etrans Pacific yakaramba ichiderera, mitengo yekutakura zvinhu kuWest Coast ichiderera kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu pachikamu chimwe nechimwe chemakiromita makumi mana uye kuEast Coast ichiderera kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi manomwe nemakumi mashanu nemana paFEU. Zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura, nhamba idzi dzakaderera ne40% uye dziri padanho repasi kana kuti pasi zvishoma pegore ra2024 mushure meGore Idzva reLunar.
Saizvozvowo, mumavhiki apfuura, mitengo yekutakura zvinhu mugungwa yekutengeserana kweAsia Europe yakadererawo pasi peyakaderera yegore rapfuura.

Mutengo weAsia Nordic wakawedzera ne3% kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matanhatu nemana paFEU imwe neimwe. Mutengo weAsia Mediterranean uchiri pamadhora mazana mana nemakumi mashanu nemapfumbamwe paFEU imwe neimwe.

Kunyangwe kukwira kwemitengo kwakaitika pakutanga kwaKurume kwakaderedza kudzikira uku uye kwakawedzera mitengo nemazana mashoma emadhora, kuwedzera kwacho kwaive pasi zvakanyanya pekuwedzera kwemadhora chiuru kwakaziviswa nekambani. Mitengo iri mudunhu reAsia Mediterranean yagadzikana uye yakaenzana neyayo yegore rapfuura.

Levin akati kushaya simba kuri kuitika munguva pfupi yapfuura mumitengo yekutakura zvinhu, kunyanya munzira dzinopfuura nePacific, kunogona kunge kuri kukonzerwa nezvinhu zvakawanda zvinoshanda pamwe chete. Izvi zvinosanganisira kusashanda zvakanaka kwezvinodiwa mushure meMutambo weChirimo, pamwe nekugadziriswazve kwemakambani ekufambisa zvinhu, izvo zvakakonzera kukwikwidzana kwakanyanya uye kudzikira kwekushanda zvakanaka mukutarisira kugona sezvo vashandi vachijaira mabasa matsva.

Nekuda kwekusaziva, nguva dzakati wandei dzakakosha dziri kuuya. Izvi zvinosanganisira kunzwa kweUnited States Trade Representative musi wa24 Kurume, iyo ichaita sarudzo pamusoro pemari dzinodiwa pachiteshi; Sekureva kwegwaro reMutungamiriri we "America First Trade Policy", nguva yekupedzisira yekuti masangano anyore nyaya dzakasiyana dzekutengeserana i1 Kubvumbi, nepo nguva yekupedzisira yekuisa mutero we25% pazvinhu zveUSMCA iri 2 Kubvumbi.